SWKS — Skyworks Solutions, Inc. (Nasdaq: NMS) — Deep-Dive Technical & Context Report

Analysis date: 2026-09-21 (latest verified trading row: 2026-09-21) | Prepared: 2026-09-22

Data integrity note: Before writing this report I pulled get_verified_market_snapshot for 2026-09-21 and treated it as the source of truth. All indicator values returned by get_indicators (10 EMA 84.56, 50 SMA 69.19, RSI 64.62, MACD 5.92, MACD signal 4.58, Bollinger upper 95.64, ATR 4.85) match the verified snapshot exactly — no discrepancies to flag. Price history comes from get_stock_data (2026-01-02 → 2026-09-21, 180 sessions); its recent closes are identical to the snapshot's verified closes.

1. Executive Summary

SWKS has completed one of the most violent re-ratings in its 2026 tape: from a verified close of 65.70 (2026-08-25) to 88.74 (2026-09-21) — +35.1% in 19 sessions, and +70.5% from the verified Q1 closing low of 52.05 (2026-03-30). The move is volume-backed (VWMA 82.63 rising steeply, surging on up-days), trend-aligned (price +28.3% above the 50 SMA, +37.8% above the 200 SMA), and is now digesting gains in a tightening 85–92 coil rather than breaking down: RSI has cooled from an extreme 83.38 (09-11) to 64.62 while price has gone sideways-to-up — momentum repaired through time, not price.

The setup is a strongly bullish trend at a decision point: rising lows (85.22 → 84.44 → 87.48 → 88.13) pinned under a hard supply cluster at 91.5–92.3. The next decisive daily close — above 92.05–92.30 (band-top run toward ~95.6+) or below 84.5 (10 EMA) — should set the next multi-point leg. ATR has +72% expanded to 4.85 (5.5% of price), so risk must be sized to this regime, not to August's.

Fundamental overlay supports the tape: a solid FQ3 print (revenue $935M, non-GAAP EPS $1.08, per the 2026-07-28 8-K), Broad Markets momentum "led by double-digit gains in automotive and data center," and the Qorvo combination progressing through regulatory review with a $2B buyback authorization for the combined company. That same deal is the dominant binary headline risk.

2. Verified Market Snapshot — 2026-09-21 (source of truth)

3. Market Structure — Price-Action Narrative (all figures from tool output)

Phase 1 — Q1 washout (Jan–early Apr): 2026 opened at 63.09 (01-02), sliced lower after a gap-down on 2026-01-28 (open 53.76 vs. prior close 58.83, close 54.15 on 9.87M shares — the year's 4th-heaviest session), and ground out a base with the closing low at 52.05 (2026-03-30); intraday low 51.48 that same day.

Phase 2 — Spring recovery & first vertical impulse (late Apr–May): Recovery to 63.10 (04-24), then an explosive +12.1% day on 2026-04-30 (close 69.57, high 69.84, 8.17M shares), followed by another +12.1% day on 2026-05-22 (close 81.71) and the May peak close of 83.42 (05-26, high 84.79).

Phase 3 — Summer fade & second washout (Jun–Jul): A two-month give-back to a closing low of 56.58 (2026-07-14). The FQ3 8-K press release dated 2026-07-28 coincided with a close of 64.68 (+7.4% that day), but the next session (07-29) gapped down to open 58.59, tagged 57.50, and recovered to close 61.19 on 17.0M shares — a reminder that this name's event reactions are violent in both directions.

Phase 4 — August base (65.7–70.6): Sideways accumulation, closing low of the phase at 65.70 (08-25), RSI bottoming at 47.73 that day (get_indicators rsi series).

Phase 5 — The September impulse (09-02 → 09-21): Ignition on 09-02 (+6.3% to 71.67), then a staircase: 84.03 (+9.8%, 09-10, 11.3M shares), 88.35 (09-11, intraday high 92.30), a -10.3% shakeout to 79.26 on 09-14 (low 79.04, 11.2M shares), a +13.5% reclaim to 90.00 on 09-15 (12.9M shares — the largest up-day volume of the run), then 85.59 / 91.32 (09-17) / 88.76 on 22.11M shares (09-18 — the heaviest single-session volume in the entire 180-session dataset) / 88.74 on just 4.38M (09-21).

Current structure: Four sessions of closes (85.59, 91.32, 88.76, 88.74) with highs clustered at 89.38 / 91.46 / 92.05 / 91.83 and lows rising 85.22 → 84.44 → 87.48 → 88.13. That is a tightening coil directly beneath a 90–92.3 supply zone — highs pinned, lows lifting. The 09-21 session's low (88.13) is the highest daily low of the consolidation.

YTD math (verified closes): 63.09 → 88.74 = +40.7% YTD; off the 03-30 closing low = +70.5%; off the 08-25 base = +35.1%.

4. Indicator-by-Indicator Analysis (8 selected — complementary, non-redundant)

4.1 close_10_ema — 84.56 (short-term trend / dynamic trailing line)

Rising every session since 09-01 (67.03 → 84.56). Price is +4.95% above it — extended but not parabolic (during the 09-11 blowoff, price closed 15.4% above the then-EMA). The 09-16 session closed at 85.59, essentially on the rising EMA zone, before the 09-17 thrust to 91.32 — the EMA is currently acting as the pullback anchor of the coil. Loss of 84.5 on a closing basis would be the first structural crack in the September impulse.

4.2 close_50_sma — 69.19 (medium-term trend confirmation)

Inflected upward on 09-02 (64.79 → 69.19 in 14 sessions) after a multi-month decline/flat period. Price is +28.3% above it — a stretch that historically demands either consolidation (what's happening now) or a mean-reversion event. The 50 SMA is rising toward the 70 handle; the mid-70s Bollinger midline sits between price and the 50 SMA, forming a layered demand shelf on any deep pullback.

4.3 close_200_sma — 64.41 (long-term benchmark, from verified snapshot)

Price is +37.8% above the 200 SMA, which is itself still in a gentle downtrend/flat posture. This is a full sentiment regime change versus Q1 (when price traded below it: the entire Jan–May range of 51–63 sat at or under today's 200-day line). Strategically bullish; tactically, the gap between price and the 200-day is the single largest mean-reversion magnet on the chart.

4.4 macd — 5.92 (momentum level)

Crossed above its signal line on 09-02 (0.778 vs 0.675) and has climbed without interruption to 5.92 — an enormous reading for a ~$89 stock. Key nuance: the line is still rising but the slope has flattened (09-18: 5.845 → 09-21: 5.922, the smallest daily gain of the trend). MACD momentum is now plateauing, consistent with consolidation rather than fresh thrust.

4.5 macds — 4.58 (trigger line)

Rising continuously (0.67 on 09-02 → 4.58). No crossover threat: MACD leads the signal by 1.34 points (the histogram), and a bearish cross would require a multi-session MACD rollover. As long as MACD > signal and both slope up, the momentum regime is bullish-but-cooling, not deteriorating.

4.6 MACD histogram (snapshot) — 1.34, peaked and decaying

This is the most important momentum tell in the dataset: the histogram peaked at 1.9166 on 09-11, and has since stepped down (1.5373 → 1.8817 → 1.6904 → 1.8167 → 1.6022 → 1.3438). Momentum deceleration inside price consolidation — typical of a working pause, but it means new longs should demand histogram re-expansion as confirmation rather than buying the static MACD level.

4.7 rsi — 64.62 (momentum / exhaustion gauge)

The full arc is instructive: 47.73 (08-25 base) → 71.88 (09-09) → 80.30 (09-10) → 83.38 (09-11 blowoff) → 61.53 (09-14 shakeout) → 71.15 (09-15) → 68.46 (09-17) → 64.62 now. Two observations: - Mild bearish divergence: the higher closing high of 91.32 (09-17) printed with RSI 68.46 vs. 83.38 at the 09-11 close of 88.35. The divergence has since partially resolved via sideways closes (88.76/88.74), not via a breakdown — a healthy time-based reset. - RSI at 64.6 is neither stretched (no overbought penalty left) nor weak. The indicator has been reset to "reload" territory while price held its gains — the most constructive momentum configuration for a continuation attempt.

4.8 boll_ub — 95.64 (volatility envelope / overbought boundary) — with middle 76.60 and lower 57.55 (snapshot)

During the impulse, price closed above the upper band on 09-11 (88.35 vs. band 83.14) and 09-15 (90.00 vs. 87.62) — textbook "riding the band" parabolic behavior. As of 09-21, price has re-entered the envelope (88.74 vs. upper band 95.64) while the bands themselves keep widening with ATR. Derived %B ≈ 0.82 ((88.74−57.55)/(95.64−57.55)) — upper quartile, no longer extreme. The band top at ~95.6 is the natural measured target zone if 92 gives way; the middle band at 76.60 is the deeper bull/bear pivot.

4.9 atr — 4.85 (volatility regime / risk governor)

ATR has expanded +72% from 2.82 (08-31) to 4.85 — 5.5% of the share price per day. Concretely: 1.5×ATR stop = 81.47 below spot; 2×ATR = 79.05 — which lands almost exactly on the 09-14 shakeout low of 79.04. That confluence (statistical volatility stop ≈ observed structural low) is the cleanest risk line on the chart. Position sizes should be scaled to this regime: the same dollar risk that bought ~2× the shares in August buys ~half that today.

4.10 vwma — 82.63 (volume-weighted trend confirmation)

The VWMA has rocketed from 67.14 (09-01) to 82.63 (+23% in 14 sessions) and sits 13.5 points above the 50 SMA (69.19). Translation: the average volume-weighted cost of recent trading is far above the simple trend average — the rally is being bought with size. Price is +7.4% above the VWMA, extended but consistent with an active impulse. Caveat per the tool guidance: a handful of mega-volume sessions (09-18's 22.1M) can skew VWMA; the fact that VWMA still slopes steeply up after that heavy down-volume session is net-constructive.

Why these 8 and not others: This is a trending, high-volatility, post-blowoff consolidation. 10 EMA + 50 SMA capture the trend without the noise of the (redundant) 200 SMA crossover setups; MACD + signal + RSI capture momentum level and exhaustion from different mathematical angles without overlap (no stochastic added — redundant with RSI); Bollinger upper band + ATR capture the volatility regime and stretch, which is the dominant risk right now; VWMA answers the only question SMA/EMA cannot — is real money behind the move? Bollinger lower band and middle band values come free with the verified snapshot and are used for levels, not as separate signals.

5. Volume & Money-Flow Overlay

Session-volume audit of the impulse (from get_stock_data): - Up-days: 09-02 (7.52M), 09-10 (11.33M), 09-11 (11.13M), 09-15 (12.95M), 09-17 (7.35M) — cumulative ≈ 50.3M - Down/red days: 09-14 (11.16M), 09-16 (8.19M), 09-18 (22.11M), 09-21 (4.38M) — cumulative ≈ 45.8M - The heaviest session of the entire year (22.1M, 09-18) was a modest red close (-2.8%) that nevertheless held above 87.48 intraday — two-way institutional churn at the highs, not a clean distribution signature, but not negligible either. - 09-21's 4.38M shares is the quietest session since 04-16 — supply drying up inside the coil while lows rise. That is the pre-breakout fingerprint bulls want, provided the break arrives on expanding volume.

QuantOrb money-flow screen (source document, 2026-09-18 session): MFI 90.94, signal CONTINUATION, strength 0.7825. Per the source's own disclaimer, this is a quantitative screen output, not a recommendation. Interpretation: money-flow corroborates the volume-led advance, but an MFI in the low-90s simultaneously flags stretched buying pressure — consistent with the RSI-83 extreme already seen and cooled.

13F overlay (as of 2026-03-31, statutory lag up to 45 days — stale by ~6 months): PZENA Investment Management added 3,481,658 shares (+27.6%) to 16,108,138; Kerrisdale Advisers holds 126,980 shares (no prior-quarter comparison). Only 2 tracked filer rows — this is a partial, quarter-end snapshot and predates the entire May–September move, so it evidences early institutional accumulation, not current positioning.

6. Fundamental / Filing Overlay

• FQ3 2026 results (8-K Item 2.02 press release, 2026-07-28; quarter ended 2026-07-03): Revenue $935M; GAAP operating income $49M, GAAP diluted EPS $0.22; non-GAAP operating income $182M, non-GAAP diluted EPS $1.08. CEO Phil Brace: results "above expectations," Mobile "performed well on healthy demand," Broad Markets delivered YoY growth "led by double-digit gains in automotive and data center." Note the GAAP/non-GAAP gap (EPS $0.22 vs $1.08) — a large wedge worth monitoring for adjustment quality.
• Qorvo combination: regulatory approvals "progressing"; ~$2B of acquisition debt financing anticipated; new $2B stock repurchase authorization for the combined company; combined leadership team announced. This is the strategic thesis (RF scale, content growth) and the primary binary event risk — regulatory headlines can gap the stock in either direction, exactly as the 07-28/07-29 earnings sequence did (+7.4% close, then a -9.4% gap-down open the next session).
• 10-K (filed 2025-11-07): Analog/mixed-signal semiconductor supplier; key customers include Amazon and Apple; diversification strategy into automotive, industrial, 5G infrastructure, data center. Apple concentration remains the structural business-model risk the diversification push is designed to dilute — the "double-digit automotive/data center growth" cited in FQ3 is the first evidence of that pivot paying off.
• Dividend events in the OHLCV feed: $0.71/share on 2026-02-24 and 2026-05-26.

Honesty box — what my tools cannot tell me: No news tool was used; the specific catalyst(s) for the September vertical move are not identified in any tool output, and I will not speculate on them. The 13F data is a stale, partial snapshot. The QuantOrb MFI is a screen, not advice. Next earnings (FQ4, quarter ending early October) has no confirmed date in my data — assume a late-October/early-November report based on the July 28 FQ3 release cadence, and verify independently.

7. Actionable Levels & Scenarios

Resistance (from verified data): 1. 91.5–92.3 supply cluster — intraday highs 92.30 (09-11), 91.46 (09-17), 92.05 (09-18), 91.83 (09-21). Four tags in seven sessions = the decision ceiling. 2. ~95.6 — rising Bollinger upper band (95.64), the measured extension zone on a breakout. 3. 90.00 round level — the 09-15 close; minor but psychologically charged within the coil.

Support (layered, from verified data): 1. 88.1–87.5 — the 09-21 low (88.13) and 09-18 low (87.48); highest rising lows of the coil. First breach warning. 2. 84.5–85.6 — 10 EMA (84.56) + the 09-16 close (85.59). The coil's floor. 3. 79.0–79.3 — 09-14 shakeout low (79.04) / close (79.26) ≈ 2×ATR statistical stop (79.05). The line that defines "impulse intact." 4. 76.6 — Bollinger middle band; then 69.2 (50 SMA) only in a full trend-failure scenario.

Scenarios: - Bull continuation (breakout): Daily close > 92.05–92.30 on volume expanding back above ~8–10M with MACD histogram re-expanding (it must reverse its 09-11 → 09-21 decay from 1.92 → 1.34). First objective: the band top ~95.6; subsequent discovery above old highs. Entries on strength or on a successful retest of 92 from above. - Neutral (base case while inside the coil): Chop between 84.5 and 92.0. The 10 EMA rises ~+0.9/session toward price — time is repairing the extension. Aggressive traders can trade the coil edges with reduced size; the ATR regime (4.85/day) makes tight stops inside the coil a donation machine. - Bearish (trend warning → failure): (a) Warning: daily close < 84.5 (10 EMA loss) with ATR still ≥ 4.5 — reduce/initiate hedges. (b) Failure: daily close < 79.0 breaks the shakeout low and the 2×ATR stop in one stroke — the September impulse is invalidated; air pocket toward 76.6 (Boll mid) and then the rising-but-distant 50 SMA (69.2+). - Event risk overlay: Qorvo regulatory headlines and the FQ4 print are gap risks independent of the chart. The 07-29 sequence (gap-down open 58.59 after a +7.4% earnings-day close, 17.0M shares) is the template: size for gaps, not just for daily ATR.

Risk-management math (concrete): At 88.74 with a structural stop at 79.05, risk ≈ $9.69/share (10.9%). A 1% portfolio-risk budget implies a position of roughly ~1% of portfolio ÷ 9.69 per share — i.e., materially smaller share counts than August's regime (when 2×ATR was ~5.6 away). Traders wanting tighter risk should use the 84.5 EMA line (~$4.2 risk) but accept higher stop-out probability in a 4.85-ATR tape.

8. Key Risks

1. Binary M&A risk — Qorvo deal progress/regulatory outcomes can gap the stock violently in either direction (see 07-28/07-29).
2. Volatility regime — ATR +72% in three weeks; the 22.1M-share 09-18 session shows two-way institutional flow at highs.
3. Extension vs. 200 SMA (+37.8%) — deep mean-reversion potential if momentum breaks.
4. MACD histogram decay — momentum is decelerating; longs need re-expansion, not level-worship.
5. Customer concentration (Apple/Amazon per 10-K) and GAAP-to-non-GAAP EPS wedge ($0.22 vs $1.08 in FQ3).
6. Stale/partial ownership data — 13F snapshot is 6 months old and covers only 2 tracked filers.

9. Summary Table

Bottom line: SWKS is a volume-confirmed, trend-aligned momentum leader pausing in a coil beneath 92 after an RSI/ATR blowoff and a healthy time-based reset. The highest-probability trade is to let price make the decision — engage on a volume-backed close above 92.05–92.30 (targets ~95.6 band top), or stand aside/reduce on a close below 84.5, with 79.05 (2×ATR ≈ 09-14 low) as the hard invalidation. This is analysis, not a trade recommendation; another agent decides the trade.

Overall Sentiment: Mildly Bullish (Score: 6.2/10) Confidence: Medium

SWKS Sentiment Report — 2026-09-14 to 2026-09-21

1. Source-by-source breakdown

News (Yahoo Finance et al., ~17 items): The dominant institutional story is the pending Qorvo combination and a violent rotation of money into handset RF names. Key items: - Deal progress: Skyworks extended its Qorvo bond swap deadline to Sept 25, with "most Qorvo bondholders said yes" (Insider Monkey, 9/18) — deal timing, not consent, is the open question. This follows the July 28 8-K confirming regulatory approvals are progressing, ~$2B acquisition debt planned, and a new $2B buyback authorization for the combined company. - Price action: SWKS jumped 11–12% on Sept 15/16, briefly leading the S&P 500 (Barron's, Proactive), on Apple smartphone launch component hopes plus Qorvo merger progress — notably against a falling large-cap tech tape. A 9/14–9/15 AI-safety-driven tech selloff (Anthropic/OpenAI/SpaceX CEOs' call for a slowdown) hit SWKS as collateral damage before it snapped back. - Caution flags: StockStory's "3 Reasons SWKS is Risky" after a 61.6% six-month run to $86.77; 24/7 Wall St. [price target withheld — AdCho policy] - Peer context: Qorvo flagged as "overvalued" after a 37% YTD rally; Qualcomm volatility (±6–7% swings) shows the handset-chip theme is being actively repriced.

StockTwits (28 messages): 6 bullish (21%) vs 5 bearish (18%), 17 unlabeled — a modestly positive but low-conviction and noisy read. Bullish voices target $100 (breakout, magnet to key level; antitrust clearance noted), call the $22B Qorvo deal "removing the single biggest overhang — a re-rating, not a blip," and include an AI-model long-candidate pick. Bearish voices are largely short-term traders shorting the unexplained pop ("No news. Starting a short here," "MASSIVE DUMP") and one technical pullback call ($78 → $67). Sample size is small; treat ratios as indicative only.

Reddit/X feed (20 posts): Effectively zero substantive signal — all 20 posts in the window are identical spam-style WhatsApp-group solicitations with negligible impressions (0–15). No genuine r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks, or r/investing discussion of SWKS was captured. Social-read robustness rests on StockTwits alone.

Supplementary data: QuantOrb money-flow MFI of 90.94 with a CONTINUATION signal (strength 0.7825) as of the 9/18 session — very high money-flow reading consistent with the strong inflows, but also approaching overbought extremes. 13F snapshot (as of 3/31, stale): Pzena added 3.48M shares (+27.6%) to 16.1M — supportive of institutional accumulation, though nearly six months old.

2. Cross-source divergences and alignments

• Alignment: News and StockTwits both center on the Qorvo deal as the primary catalyst; both note the stock rising against a weak large-cap tech tape (rotation into handset RF).
• Divergence: Retail bulls talk of $100–120 targets while sell-side targets sit ~18% below the price and cautionary pieces (StockStory, 24/7 Wall St.) flag valuation, dividend cut, debt load, and CFO selling. Fast-money bears on StockTwits shorted the pop — a genuinely split short-term view despite the bullish medium-term deal narrative.
• Macro headwind: Rising 10-year yields (highest since 2007) pushed equities lower mid-week — a cross-cutting risk all sources acknowledge.

3. Dominant narrative themes

1. Qorvo merger de-risking — bondholder consent near-complete, antitrust cleared, deadline Sept 25.
2. Apple smartphone launch driving component-demand expectations for the key customer (per 10-K, Apple is a key customer).
3. Rotation out of AI-hype semis into handset/RF names.
4. Overextension: 61.6% six-month run, price above consensus targets, insider selling.

4. Catalysts and risks

• Catalysts: Qorvo deal close (swap settles only at closing); Sept 25 bond-swap deadline as a progress marker; Apple launch-cycle sell-through data; $2B combined-company buyback.
• Risks: Deal-timing delay; ~$2B new acquisition debt; valuation above analyst targets; CFO insider selling; dividend cut signaling cash-flow priorities; macro rate pressure on high-multiple semis; elevated MFI (90.94) implying stretched flows.

5. Summary table

Net read: Mildly Bullish (6.2/10). The deal-completion and Apple-cycle narrative is a genuine, event-backed tailwind, but price is well ahead of sell-side targets with insider selling, new debt, and overbought money-flow readings — the sentiment setup favors continued strength contingent on the merger closing, with meaningful downside if it slips. Confidence is medium: news flow is rich, but the social sample is small and the Reddit feed was unusable spam.

SWKS (Skyworks Solutions, Inc.) — Weekly News & Macro Research Report

Analysis date: 2026-09-21 (Sunday; last completed US session: Friday 2026-09-18)

1. Executive Summary

Skyworks Solutions (Nasdaq: SWKS) enters the new week as one of the strongest momentum stories in semiconductors — and simultaneously one of the most extended. The stock has rallied ~61.6% over the past six months to the mid-$80s (StockStory, via Yahoo Finance), outperformed the entire S&P 500 on Tuesday 2026-09-15 after the Apple iPhone launch cycle re-ignited component demand hopes (Barron's; Proactive Investors), and continues to ride the pending Qorvo (QRVO) combination narrative. QuantOrb's money-flow engine printed an MFI of 90.94 with a CONTINUATION signal (strength 0.7825) as of the 2026-09-18 session — an emphatically overbought reading that confirms powerful inflows but also flags mean-reversion risk.

The macro tape is turning less friendly: equity markets sold off last week as the 10-year Treasury yield reached its highest level since 2007 (MT Newswires; Barron's), and a coordinated call by the CEOs of Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX for a slowdown in frontier AI development triggered a sharp, AI-proxy-driven tech selloff on Monday 2026-09-14 — SWKS fell with it before snapping back to lead the S&P 500 the next day. Meanwhile, the Qorvo bond exchange has been extended to September 25, making next week a live deal-timing catalyst window.

Net stance for the report: constructive but momentum-exhausted. The path of least resistance has been up, but entry asymmetry at these levels is poor; the actionable ideas are (a) trailing-stop discipline for existing longs, (b) positioning around the 9/25 bond-swap/deal milestone, and (c) hedging against rates-driven multiple compression.

Data caveats: FRED macro data was unavailable this cycle (vendor API key error — no CPI, PCE, Fed funds, yield-curve, unemployment, or VIX series retrievable), and prediction-market odds were withheld for 2026-09-21 (Polymarket serves only live odds with no historical vintage, so serving them into this analysis date would leak post-decision information). Macro commentary below is therefore grounded in news-reported figures and source documents only. No figures are fabricated.

2. Company-Specific News (SWKS, week of 2026-09-14 → 2026-09-21)

Valuation/behavioral flags from the press: - StockStory published "3 Reasons SWKS is Risky" explicitly citing the 61.6% six-month run to $86.77 and asking whether the run-up is exhausted. [price target withheld — AdCho policy] - The rally has been rotation-driven, not AI-driven: on 9/15 smartphone-chip names rallied while big tech fell; on 9/21 SWKS lagged a Qualcomm AI-interconnect pop. Money is being quietly re-allocated into handset componentry / merger-arc names, not paying up for SWKS on AI grounds. - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) completed its annual reconstitution Monday, adding four new names — a mild index-flow tailwind/chop factor for semis broadly (IBD).

3. The Qorvo Combination — The Dominant Idiosyncratic Catalyst

Per the SEC 8-K press release (2026-07-28, Q3 FY26 results, quarter ended 2026-07-03): - Revenue $935M; GAAP operating income $49M, GAAP diluted EPS $0.22; non-GAAP operating income $182M, non-GAAP diluted EPS $1.08 — "revenue and earnings above expectations" (CEO Phil Brace). - Mobile performed well on healthy demand; Broad Markets delivered YoY growth led by double-digit gains in automotive and data center — the diversification story in the FY2025 10-K (filed 2025-11-07) is visibly executing. - Qorvo regulatory approvals progressing; expected leadership team announced; ~$2B acquisition debt financing planned; new $2B stock repurchase authorization for the combined company under a new capital-allocation framework.

This week's development: the Qorvo bond exchange deadline extended to September 25, 2026, with most bondholders already consenting. Insider Monkey's read is that the swap "cannot settle until the Qorvo merger closes, so the real story is timing." Implication for traders: the deal arc is advancing on schedule (regulatory → financing → creditor consent), and any close-window announcement is the single largest binary catalyst for SWKS near-term — merger-arb positioning, index flows, and the $2B buyback framework all key off it. Conversely, a further extension beyond 9/25 would be a negative signal on timing.

4. Macro Backdrop (grounded in news; FRED unavailable this cycle)

• Rates: the dominant headwind. US equity indexes ended lower Tuesday as the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to its highest level since 2007 — a 19-year high (MT Newswires; Barron's). For a mid-cap semiconductor trading 18% above sell-side targets on a merger-and-momentum premium, a 19-year-high long bond is direct multiple-compression risk. Note SWKS's own Q2/Q3 FY26 GAAP profitability is thin ($0.22 GAAP EPS in Q3 vs $1.08 non-GAAP), so duration and financing costs matter: the company is itself planning ~$2B of acquisition debt into this rate environment.
• AI sentiment fragility. The 9/14 rout came from safety rhetoric, not data — an essay by Anthropic's CEO urging deliberate slowdown of frontier-model development, publicly backed by OpenAI's and SpaceX's CEOs. SWKS's selloff-and-snapback shows it is being traded as loose AI/semis beta. Expect repeated air pockets in AI-proxy names on any further headlines; SWKS's beta to that theme is now demonstrably live.
• Crypto/risk-appetite periphery. The global feed this week was dominated by digital-asset news — Bitcoin reclaiming $80,000, Circle's Arc mainnet launch with BlackRock and Visa, the failed CLARITY Act, and the SEC's tokenized-stock rule. Directionally this reflects persistent speculative risk appetite in the periphery, supportive of the broad "risk-on" tape, though not directly SWKS-relevant.
• Sector flow note: SOX annual reconstitution completed (four new entrants) — routine, but a source of short-term semi-index churn.

Transparency note: All eight FRED indicator requests (CPI, core PCE, fed funds, 10Y, yield curve, unemployment, VIX) failed with a vendor API-key configuration error. I have therefore not quoted any official inflation/labor/rate numbers, and I anchor macro statements to the news-reported 10-year-yield move instead. Prediction-market probabilities (Fed cut odds, recession odds, merger-specific markets) were withheld for the 2026-09-21 vintage for look-ahead protection.

5. Positioning & Flow Signals

• QuantOrb money-flow (2026-09-18 session): MFI 90.94, signal CONTINUATION, strength 0.7825. Read-through: institutional-grade inflow pressure remains, and the engine projects follow-through — but an MFI above 90 is textbook overbought; continuation signals at this MFI level historically pair best with tight risk management, not fresh leveraged entries. (The vendor itself notes this is a screen output, not a recommendation.)
• 13F snapshot (as of 2026-03-31, statutory lag up to 45 days): Pzena Investment Management added 3,481,658 shares (+27.6%) to 16,108,138 — deep-value-flavored institutional accumulation during the run. Kerrisdale Advisers held 126,980 shares (no prior-quarter comparison in the dataset). Two-filer snapshot is not exhaustive; treat as a lagged directional clue, not real-time positioning.
• Insider note (press-sourced): CFO share sales into the surge, per 24/7 Wall St. — a modest negative tell at stretched valuations.
• Peer-relative framing: QRVO +36.8% YTD and flagged as possibly overvalued by Simply Wall St.; QCOM -6% (9/18) after an 18% monthly run, then +7% (9/21) on an AI-interconnect demo. The handset-complex is whipsawing on theme rotation; SWKS's fate is tied to the merger + Apple cycle legs, not to AI capex.

6. Risks Register

1. [price target withheld — AdCho policy] Any macro or deal wobble invites outsized mean-reversion.
2. Rates risk: 10Y at a 19-year high (news-sourced); SWKS is adding ~$2B debt for the merger — financing cost and multiple compression both bite.
3. Deal-timing risk: bond swap now closing 9/25; settlement still contingent on merger close. Slippage = arb unwinds. The $2B buyback framework only materializes post-close.
4. Apple concentration: 10-K names Apple among key customers; the current pop is explicitly "Apple component hopes" — content-share-per-unit outcomes for the new iPhone cycle are the fundamental fulcrum, and hopes are not yet confirmed in hard data.
5. AI-beta contagion: SWKS traded down on an AI-safety essay it has no direct exposure to; it inherits tech-sector drawdowns.
6. Internal-teller risk: CFO selling; dividend reduced (per 24/7 Wall St.) — mixed management signal on intrinsic value vs. market price.
7. Data blind spots: no verified FRED macro prints and no prediction-market odds this cycle; macro views here are news-anchored and should be re-validated once the macro vendor is repaired.

7. Actionable Insights

1. Existing longs: respect the CONTINUATION signal but treat MFI 90.94 as an overbought warning — trail stops aggressively (e.g., below the 9/15 breakout zone rather than wider technical supports) and consider trimming into strength above ~$89 where the tape already outruns sell-side targets by ~18%.
2. New entries: chasing here offers poor asymmetry. Prefer either (a) a post-pullback entry on any AI-rhetoric- or rates-driven shakeout toward the pre-9/15 base, or (b) waiting for the 9/25 bond-swap/deal-timing resolution to define the next leg.
3. Event play: keep size modest into September 25 (bond-swap deadline). A clean resolution plus any merger-close-window update is upside fuel; another extension is a sell signal on deal timing.
4. Hedge the macro leg: with the 10Y at 19-year highs, rate-sensitive longs in SWKS/QRVO are implicitly short duration; rate-hedge instruments or reduced beta into CPI/Fed calendar items (once the macro data feed is verified again) is prudent.
5. Watch the divergence trades: QCOM's AI-interconnect bid vs. SWKS/QRVO's absence from it tells you the market's theme map — if AI-infrastructure money keeps dominating flows, SWKS needs the merger close and Apple content legs to keep up; monitor iPhone supply-chain checks and any combined-company financing/buyback execution news as the confirmers.

8. Key Points Table

Prepared 2026-09-21. All figures sourced from the cited news items, SEC documents, and vendor feeds above; unavailable data is explicitly flagged rather than estimated. Nothing herein is investment advice.

Skyworks Solutions, Inc. (SWKS) — Fundamental Research Report

Analysis date: 2026-09-21 | Ticker: SWKS | Exchange: NMS (Nasdaq) | Sector: Information Technology / Semiconductors

1. Executive Summary

Skyworks Solutions is an analog/mixed-signal semiconductor company in the middle of a transformative event: a pending combination with Qorvo, with regulatory approvals progressing as of the July 28, 2026 8-K. The fundamental picture is two-sided:

• Strengths: ~40%+ gross margins, a net-cash balance sheet (~$790M cash vs. $681M total debt after repaying ~$500M of short-term borrowings in the June 2026 quarter), $3.1x current ratio, growth in Broad Markets (double-digit YoY gains in automotive and data center per the Q3 FY26 release), and a new $2B buyback authorization for the combined company.
• Concerns: Revenue down -3.1% YoY in the June 2026 quarter ($934.8M vs. $965.0M), GAAP operating margin compressed to ~5.2% (TTM ~7.6%), two consecutive quarters of negative free cash flow (-$37.5M, -$16.9M) driven by a large inventory build (+43.7% YoY to $1,015.5M), TTM dividends ($425.7M) exceeding TTM FCF ($408.6M), and rising special charges (likely Qorvo deal/restructuring related).

A quantitative money-flow screen (QuantOrb, 2026-09-18 session) shows MFI 90.94 with a CONTINUATION signal (strength 0.7825) — strong inflow momentum, but an MFI above 90 flags near-term overbought risk for new entries. The screen output is not a recommendation.

2. Company Profile

Per the FY2025 10-K (filed 2025-11-07) [FILING]: - Business: "A leading developer, manufacturer and provider of analog and mixed-signal semiconductor products and solutions" for aerospace, automotive, broadband, cellular infrastructure, connected home, defense, entertainment/gaming, industrial, medical, smartphone, tablet, and wearables. - Technology span: cellular, advanced Wi-Fi, enhanced GPS, Bluetooth; expansion verticals include EV/hybrid vehicles, industrial/motor control, power supply, 5G wireless infrastructure, optical data communication, data center, automotive, smart home. - Key customers: Amazon, Apple Inc. (per the 10-K excerpt) — Apple concentration remains the structural risk factor for the mobile business. - Strategy: diversify revenue and customer set via organic growth and acquisitions; the pending Qorvo combination is the largest strategic step in this direction. - CEO: Phil Brace (president & CEO, quoted in the Q3 FY26 release).

3. Data Availability & Methodology Notes

1. get_fundamentals withheld point-in-time values for 2026-09-21 (vendor serves only present-day 2026-09-22 snapshot for market cap, multiples, 52-week range). Valuation multiples and yield cannot be quoted as of the analysis date without fabricating data — traders should pull live quotes. Point-in-time financials below come from the statement tools.
2. Period mapping: the vendor labels periods by calendar quarter-end. The Q3 FY26 8-K (fiscal quarter ended July 3, 2026) reports revenue of $935M and GAAP EPS of $0.22, exactly matching the vendor's 2026-06-30 column ($934.8M / $0.22) — confirming the mapping: Jun-2026 → fiscal Q3 FY26; Mar-2026 → Q2 FY26; Dec-2025 → Q1 FY26; Sep-2025 → Q4 FY25; Jun-2025 → Q3 FY25.
3. Only five quarters of usable income-statement history (Dec-2024 column is empty in the vendor dataset); seven quarters of cash flow.
4. The 13F dataset contains only 2 filer rows — it is a tracked snapshot, not an exhaustive holder list, and is as of 2026-03-31 (statutory lag).

4. Q3 Fiscal 2026 Headline Results (8-K, filed 2026-07-28) [EIGHTK]

Key strategic disclosures from the release: - Qorvo combination: regulatory approvals progressing; expected leadership team for the combined company announced. - Debt financing: anticipates raising ~$2B of acquisition debt — this will swing the currently net-cash balance sheet to net debt pro forma. - Capital allocation: new framework for the combined company; new $2B stock repurchase authorization. - CEO commentary: "Mobile performed well on healthy demand, and Broad Markets delivered another quarter of year-over-year growth, led by double-digit gains in automotive and data center."

Note the wide GAAP/non-GAAP gap ($0.22 vs. $1.08; $49M vs. $182M operating income) — driven by intangible amortization (~$43–46M/qtr), stock-based compensation (~$53–64M/qtr), and rising special charges (see §5, §7).

5. Income Statement — Five-Quarter Trend

Source: get_income_statement (quarterly), fiscal mapping per §3.

Observations: - TTM (Q4 FY25–Q3 FY26): revenue $4,014.1M; gross margin 40.7%; GAAP operating margin 7.6%; net margin 7.2%; diluted EPS $1.93; EBITDA $815.9M. - Revenue seasonality: sequential declines from the September-quarter peak (Apple-driven ramp) are normal for SWKS; the meaningful read is YoY: -3.1% for the June quarter, with gross margin down ~150bp YoY (40.1% vs. 41.6%). - GAAP earnings compression: Q3 FY26 GAAP EPS of $0.22 vs. $0.70 a year ago (-68.6%); GAAP operating income down ~56% YoY. Roughly, drivers: lower gross profit (-$26M YoY), higher special charges (-$18.3M YoY), and a higher effective tax rate (30.5% in Q3 FY26 vs. 6.3% in Q3 FY25, which also had a $19.4M tax benefit in the Sep-25 quarter). - Special charges escalating ($1.5M → $1.6M → $11.4M → $10.9M → $19.8M) — consistent with Qorvo transaction/restructuring costs; these are excluded from the non-GAAP $1.08 EPS. - R&D intensity is high: ~21.1% of TTM revenue — supportive of the automotive/data-center growth engines but a persistent drag on GAAP margins. - Interest expense modest ($5.9M in Q3 FY26); ~$2B of planned acquisition debt implies roughly $100–120M/yr of incremental interest at typical rates — a material future non-GAAP/GAAP drag to monitor.

6. Balance Sheet

Source: get_balance_sheet (quarterly).

Observations: - Deleveraging completed in the June-2026 quarter: the ~$500M short-term borrowing carried since at least Jun-2025 was fully repaid; total debt now $681.1M (LTD $496.9M + leases $184.2M). Net cash ~$118M. Debt/total capitalization ~10.9% — a clean starting point ahead of the ~$2B Qorvo debt raise. - Liquidity is strong: current ratio 3.10 ($2,710.9M / $874.3M); quick ratio 1.94. - Inventory is the biggest red flag on the balance sheet: $1,015.5M, +43.7% YoY and +14.7% QoQ, while revenue fell 3.1% YoY. Implied inventory days ≈ 165 (vs. ~114 a year ago, on COGS $559.8M). Finished goods ($332.1M, +101.8% YoY) are the fastest-growing bucket. This could reflect deliberate positioning (new ramps, Qorvo-related preparation) or demand risk — requires monitoring next quarter. Inventory build is also what drove FCF negative (§7). - DSO improved to ~34 days (vs. ~37 a year ago); DPO ~55 days. - Intangibles amortizing down ($852.2M → $678.8M over five quarters, ~$43–46M/qtr); goodwill flat at $2,176.7M. Goodwill + intangibles ≈ 38.5% of assets; tangible book value $2,882.8M. - Share count up +1.4% YoY (148.4M → 150.5M) — buybacks have nearly stopped (§7), so SBC is diluting shareholders.

7. Cash Flow & Capital Returns

Source: get_cashflow (quarterly).

TTM figures (Q4 FY25–Q3 FY26): OCF $716.2M; capex $307.6M (7.7% of revenue); FCF $408.6M (10.2% FCF margin); SBC $232.4M; dividends $425.7M (~$2.83/share annualized); buybacks only $50.1M.

Observations: - Two consecutive negative-FCF quarters (-$37.5M, -$16.9M), driven almost entirely by the inventory build (-$112.8M and -$133.4M cash impact) plus elevated capex (~$87–88M/qtr). Core OCF ex-working-capital remains solid. - Dividend coverage is thin: dividends ($425.7M TTM) = 104% of TTM FCF but a comfortable 59% of TTM OCF. At current run-rates, the dividend is funded partly from the balance sheet until inventory unwinds. - Buybacks effectively paused ($1.6M last quarter vs. $334.7M in the Jun-25 quarter) — capital is being conserved ahead of the Qorvo close; the $2B combined-company authorization [EIGHTK] is the forward catalyst. - Cash fell from $1,413.3M to $790.0M in the June quarter: change in cash -$623.3M = OCF +$70.4M − investing $85.2M − financing $608.5M. The financing outflow reconciles with the ~$500M short-term debt repayment (vendor's "Repayment of Debt" line is blank, but Total Debt fell $508.5M) plus $106.9M dividends and $1.6M buybacks.

8. Financial History & Derived Metrics (as of 2026-09-21)

Trend narrative: over five quarters, revenue has cycled down from the seasonal September peak with the June quarter down 3.1% YoY; gross margin has eroded ~150bp YoY; GAAP profitability has been further compressed by escalating special charges; and free cash flow has turned negative on inventory investment. Offsetting this, the balance sheet has been cleaned up (short-term debt repaid), liquidity is strong, and the strategic combination with Qorvo is advancing with a defined financing and capital-return plan.

9. Ownership & Money-Flow Context

Institutional holdings (13F-HR, as of 2026-03-31; statutory lag up to 45 days; only 2 tracked filer rows — not exhaustive) [THIRTEENF]: - Pzena Investment Management LLC: 16,108,138 shares, +3,481,658 (+27.6%) QoQ — a large add by a classic deep-value manager, consistent with a value/contrarian thesis on the depressed GAAP earnings; ~10.7% of the 150.5M shares outstanding from this single tracked filer. - Kerrisdale Advisers, LLC: 126,980 shares (no prior-quarter comparison in the dataset).

Money flow (QuantOrb, 2026-09-18 US session) [FACTS]: MFI 90.94, signal CONTINUATION (strength 0.7825). Interpretation: institutional-grade inflow momentum persisting; MFI >90 sits at the top of the typical 0–100 range, i.e., overbought territory — momentum continuation and mean-reversion risk are both elevated. This is a quantitative screen output, not a recommendation.

10. Key Risks

1. Customer concentration: Apple is a named key customer [FILING]; mobile is the seasonal revenue peak and is YoY-declining at the total-company level.
2. Qorvo combination execution: regulatory approval timing, integration, ~$2B new acquisition debt (materially higher pro-forma leverage and interest expense from a currently net-cash start), and GAAP charge escalation (-$19.8M in the latest quarter).
3. Inventory risk: +43.7% YoY to $1,015.5M (~165 days) against -3.1% YoY revenue — potential write-down/underloading risk if demand doesn't absorb the build.
4. Dividend sustainability at current FCF: TTM dividends slightly exceed TTM FCF; coverage depends on inventory unwind and OCF normalization.
5. Dilution: buybacks paused while SBC runs ~$232M/yr TTM; share count +1.4% YoY.
6. Momentum/overbought risk: MFI 90.94 [FACTS] suggests crowded short-term positioning; continuation signals at extreme readings historically carry pullback risk.

11. Catalysts to Watch

• Qorvo deal milestones: regulatory approvals (explicitly "progressing" per the 7/28/26 release), the ~$2B debt raise, combined-company leadership onboarding, and deployment of the $2B buyback authorization under the new capital allocation framework [EIGHTK].
• Q4 FY26 earnings report (typically early November for SWKS): watch whether the inventory build converts to revenue (particularly mobile content wins and automotive/data-center momentum) or reverses through margins.
• 13F updates (Q2 2026 positions, filed by mid-August 2026) to confirm whether Pzena's +27.6% add extended; the current dataset is stale at 2026-03-31.

12. Actionable Insights for Traders

1. Balance-sheet quality is the bull anchor: net cash (~$118M), 3.1x current ratio, debt/capitalization ~11% — the company enters the Qorvo combination from a position of strength; the $2B buyback authorization for the combined entity [EIGHTK] is a concrete future return-of-capital lever.
2. The GAAP/non-GAAP gap is wide and widening: $0.22 GAAP vs. $1.08 non-GAAP EPS in Q3 FY26. Traders should model both: GAAP TTM EPS $1.93 with special charges still escalating; the deal-close cadence will drive the charge run-rate.
3. The inventory line is the single most important item to verify next quarter: a successful drawdown supporting the "healthy demand" narrative would validate the build; another build at -X% YoY revenue would pressure margins and FCF further.
4. FCF inflection is required for the dividend/capital-return story to work pre-close: TTM FCF $408.6M vs. dividends $425.7M — watch for OCF normalization toward the $300M+/qtr seen in Dec-25.
5. Momentum context: the QuantOrb CONTINUATION signal (MFI 90.94, strength 0.7825) supports trend-following exposure but argues against chasing new long entries at extreme MFI readings; scale-in/pullback entries align better with the fundamental picture (moderate valuation cannot be confirmed here — vendor withheld point-in-time multiples).
6. Event-driven framing applies: with regulatory approvals progressing and defined financing/capital-return steps announced, SWKS trades partly on deal completion probability; position sizing should reflect binary-event risk.

Per workflow: this report supports the analysis leg; the final trade decision rests with the deciding agent. My tools cover fundamentals only (no live quote/news feed was used; fundamentals vendor withheld 2026-09-21 valuation snapshots).

13. Summary Table — Key Points at a Glance

Report compiled 2026-09-21 from get_income_statement, get_balance_sheet, get_cashflow (quarterly), plus source documents [FILING] 10-K (filed 2025-11-07), [EIGHTK] Q3 FY26 earnings release (2026-07-28), [THIRTEENF] 13F snapshot (2026-03-31), and [FACTS] QuantOrb money-flow snapshot (2026-09-18 session). get_fundamentals point-in-time profile was withheld by the vendor for 2026-09-21; no valuation figures were fabricated.