AMD — tear sheet

The engine's final decision is Underweight, assessing AMD as stretched at $607.87 after the 09-28 session printed the advance's widest bar — a -3.61% close against a 629.65 intraday high (engine final decision). Its payoff map shows +3% to +9% up to the 624.5–639 triple-top and 661.49 Bollinger ceiling versus -12% to -17% down to the 535.22 band and 506.96 50-day, with an unfilled 559.91–582.27 gap between (engine investment thesis). Its plan trims exposure to roughly 0.4–0.5x a standard weight (engine plan). Flow supports read as stale or adverse: the QuantOrb MFI 76.91 CONTINUATION snapshot is stamped 2026-09-25, before the World Labs announcement, and the quantorb 13F dataset shows a net -149,000-share quarterly change led by Assenagon (-21.3%) and Marshall Wace (-20.0%) as of 2026-03-31 ([FACTS]; [THIRTEENF]). The engine still frames this as a price problem, not a business problem, citing +50% revenue growth, 53.8% gross margin and $8.8B net cash. Sources: [FACTS] QuantOrb engine snapshot 2026-09-25; [THIRTEENF] quantorb 13F dataset 2026-03-31; engine outputs.

Source: SEC 13F-HR holdings (as of 2026-03-31) via quantorb filers data — quarter-end snapshots, statutory lag up to 45 days

Quarter-end 13F-HR snapshot for AMD as tracked in the quantorb filers dataset (5 institutional filer rows on file; positions as of 2026-03-31, a quarter-end snapshot subject to the statutory 13F reporting lag of up to 45 days). Quarter-over-quarter share changes where the dataset carries them:

This is the dataset's tracked top-holder snapshot, not an exhaustive list of 13F filers; it is a periodic regulatory disclosure, not real-time portfolio data.

Management's own results disclosure is not available in provided documents: no 8-K Item 2.02 press release was found in the lookback window, and the 10-K excerpt (filed 2026-02-04, fiscal year ended December 27, 2025) carries only the cautionary statement — that forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties and actual results could differ materially from expectations — plus the MD&A opening ([EIGHTK]; [FILING], SEC 10-K, filed 2026-02-04). Per the engine's sentiment and news reviews, the dominant announced item is the $8.2B all-stock acquisition of World Labs (2026-09-28), bringing founder Fei-Fei Li in as chief scientist; AMD closed -3.56% that session (engine sentiment report, citing press coverage). Catalysts the engine lists: the early-November Q3 print with three checkpoints (gross margin ≥53%, inventory growing slower than sales, CapEx mapping to revenue), Micron's earnings as the first AI-demand read-through, the World Labs S-4 dilution math through an end-2026 close, and macro pressure from rising yields and crude-driven defensive rotation. Sources: [EIGHTK]; [FILING] SEC 10-K (filed 2026-02-04); engine sentiment and news reviews.

The engine's risk review centers on earnings quality: Q2's $1.38 EPS rested on $598M of other income and a 9.9% tax rate (normalized ≈ $0.93; ~169x normalized), $41.1B of goodwill and intangibles equals 48.7% of assets, CapEx nearly tripled to $808M, R&D runs 21.9% of revenue (engine investment thesis). Extension risk: the engine cites July's 580.91-to-429.56 move (-21.6%) as precedent, with the stock +19.9% above its 50-day and +65.8% above its 200-day. Crowding: AMD fell harder than the market and chip peers on the OpenAI training pause while Nvidia bucked, and 77% bullish retail into a -3.6% close is flagged as a contrarian read (engine sentiment analysis). Execution: the conservative and neutral reviewers note the staged exit into 624.5–639 assumes a rally the engine's own base case — a pullback toward 582–589 — does not, with gap risk into 559.91–582.27 (engine risk review). The filing's own cautionary statement notes actual results could differ materially from expectations ([FILING]). Sources: [FILING] SEC 10-K (2026-02-04); engine outputs (thesis, risk review, sentiment).