VLO — tear sheet

The document-constrained engine's final decision rates VLO a Sell, framed in its investment plan as an underweight via staged reductions and a retained income core. Its stated evidence: Q2 2026 was a cash-verified peak quarter ($12.62 EPS versus $7.57 for all of FY2025), leaving trailing EPS of $24.10 within 3% of the FY2023 peak that preceded a 70% collapse; on the engine's normalized ~$19-20 EPS, the $387.18 close implies near 20x through-cycle earnings and ~4.6x tangible book. The engine cites heavy-volume distribution days (7.46M/7.08M shares), a low-volume bounce closing below the rising 391.37 VWMA, price 52.9% above the 200 SMA, and roughly +6.7-8.2% to the 413-419 rejected ceiling versus -10.5% measured downside to the 346-349 confluence. It frames the floated diesel export-ban proposal, after a -9.1% three-session repricing, as the key policy asymmetry. The quantorb money-flow snapshot shows MFI 57.57 with no signal (strength 0.3718); the quantorb 13F dataset shows three of five tracked filers reducing as of 2026-03-31. Sources: [FACTS], [THIRTEENF]; engine final decision and investment plan.

Source: SEC 13F-HR holdings (as of 2026-03-31) via quantorb filers data — quarter-end snapshots, statutory lag up to 45 days

Quarter-end 13F-HR snapshot for VLO as tracked in the quantorb filers dataset (5 institutional filer rows on file; positions as of 2026-03-31, a quarter-end snapshot subject to the statutory 13F reporting lag of up to 45 days). Quarter-over-quarter share changes where the dataset carries them:

This is the dataset's tracked top-holder snapshot, not an exhaustive list of 13F filers; it is a periodic regulatory disclosure, not real-time portfolio data.

Management's own results disclosures are not available in provided documents: the corpus carries no 8-K Item 2.02 press release (label EIGHTK) and no usable 10-K excerpt (label FILING), so no filed results narrative, guidance language, or announced items can be quoted; the engine treats forward guidance as unverified. Catalysts in the corpus and engine outputs: the White House's floated diesel export-ban proposal (September 22-24), which triggered a refining selloff and drew pushback from industry executives including Valero's own leadership per the news analyst report; a Q3 print the engine places about four weeks out; and, per the engine, EPS estimates raised ~38% in a month, flagged as social-sourced and unverified, with November midterms looming. The sentiment analyst report reads the week as Mixed (score 5.0, medium confidence): bullish fundamentals coverage — tight product markets, record diesel prices, largest S&P 500 EPS upgrades — against bearish policy headlines, tempered by an empty X/Reddit lane and a small retail sample. Sources: [EIGHTK], [FILING]; engine final decision; news analyst report; sentiment analyst report.

The engine's risk reviews converge on policy, cycle, technical, and data risks. Policy: the diesel export-ban proposal moved from 'fake news' to feasibility-check per the engine, aimed at the core earnings lever with November midterms approaching; reviewers note headline gap risk with one scenario filling near 360 rather than 375, and the engine designates an enacted ban as its most severe trigger. Cycle: the engine flags the 8.4% Q2 net margin at 2-4x historical norms, capex at only 24% of D&A, a ~30% ROE it deems unsustainable, and a $592M working-capital tailwind it treats as non-recurring. Technical: price 52.9% above the 200 SMA after a ~94% run from $213.07 to the $413.28 peak, the heaviest-volume distribution days in six months, and a MACD histogram deepening to -3.50. Data risks: no usable 10-K, no 8-K Item 2.02, five stale quarter-end 13F filers (statutory lag per the quantorb dataset), and an unverified ~38% estimate revision. Sources: [EIGHTK], [FILING], [THIRTEENF]; engine final decision and risk reviews.