TSLA — tear sheet

The engine's risk judge recorded a Sell assessment, with all three analyst desks aligned on direction and disputing only execution dosage. Per the engine's risk-review outputs, the spine is valuation: roughly $1.35T of market value against $3.80B trailing net income (TTM EPS $1.08), approximately 350x trailing GAAP earnings and ~110x EV/EBITDA on a 3.7% net margin, with TTM stock compensation ($3.80B) nearly equal to TTM operating income ($4.37B). Quarter quality deteriorated as the narrative peaked: record Q2 revenue of $28.24B (+25.5% YoY) arrived with gross margin down 426bp to a window-low 16.8% and roughly 0.5% incremental gross margin. The engine characterizes confirmation as absent - QuantOrb money flow at MFI 52.5, signal None, strength 0.2108 (2026-10-08 session); a net-flat 13F book with BlackRock (-0.7%) and State Street (-0.1%) trimming per the quantorb dataset; and price below a falling 200-day near the $389.71/$390.60 confluence after a $388.56 wick rejection. Sources: engine risk-review outputs; [FACTS] QuantOrb snapshot (2026-10-08); [THIRTEENF] quantorb 13F-HR; [FILING] SEC 10-K.

Source: SEC 13F-HR holdings (as of 2026-03-31) via quantorb filers data — quarter-end snapshots, statutory lag up to 45 days

Quarter-end 13F-HR snapshot for TSLA as tracked in the quantorb filers dataset (5 institutional filer rows on file; positions as of 2026-03-31, a quarter-end snapshot subject to the statutory 13F reporting lag of up to 45 days). Quarter-over-quarter share changes where the dataset carries them:

This is the dataset's tracked top-holder snapshot, not an exhaustive list of 13F filers; it is a periodic regulatory disclosure, not real-time portfolio data.

Tesla's 10-K (filed 2026-01-29) describes a company focused on bringing artificial intelligence into the real world through FSD (Supervised), Robotaxi, and AI robots including Optimus, leveraging electric-vehicle and energy generation and storage operations that increasingly deliver AI-related software and services. The same filing states that, amid rapidly evolving trade and fiscal policy, uncertainty in automotive and energy markets continues, posing risks to the global supply chain and cost structure that could have a meaningfully adverse impact on demand and profitability. No 8-K Item 2.02 press release appears in the lookback window, so management results commentary and guidance language are not available in provided documents. Catalysts visible in the corpus, per the engine's outputs: the Q3 results, which the engine situates in late October per historical cadence while flagging the date as unverifiable without that filing; news and social-sentiment vendor coverage resuming around 2026-10-12; and macro feeds - FRED unavailable, event-odds markets withheld - returning no data. Sources: [FILING] SEC 10-K; [EIGHTK] status note; engine news/sentiment analyst reports.

The 10-K (filed 2026-01-29) names rapidly evolving trade and fiscal policy as risking supply chain and cost structure, with potentially meaningfully adverse impact on demand and profitability - a factor the engine assesses as materializing, given gross margin at a window-low 16.8% (-426bp), operating margin at a window-low 1.4%, and ~70% of Q2 net income non-operating. The engine also flags $1.15B stock compensation versus $398M operating income, a 22.5% YoY share-issuance overhang, and negative free cash flow (~-$1.1B) on $5.80B capex (+133% YoY) as $4.70B operating cash flow leaned on a $1.40B working-capital release. No verifiable Robotaxi, FSD, or Optimus revenue metrics exist in the statements; deferred revenue (+12.2% YoY) is growing slower than the company. Confirmation gaps compound these: neutral money flow (QuantOrb MFI 52.5, signal None), a net-flat six-month-stale 13F book per the quantorb dataset, dark sentiment and macro feeds, and the undated Q3 print - with July 23's -14.5% single-session move the engine's cited gap precedent. Sources: [FILING] SEC 10-K; [FACTS] QuantOrb snapshot; [THIRTEENF] quantorb 13F-HR; engine risk-review outputs.